I was never surprised that President Biden’s approval rating had sunk underwater – with the majority of Americans disapproving. I had even predicted it. I assumed that his bottom was in the range of a 45 percent approval rating. I was a bit surprised when it plunged through that level into the low 40s.
Earlier, a Washington Post/ABC News poll gave Biden a modest improvement in his favorable rating, but it was still in the low 40s. That appears to have evaporated.
I never thought it would sink into the 30s, but now it has. According to the latest NBC poll, Biden is now viewed favorably by only 39 percent of the American public. But the latest poll has even worse news for Biden – and by extension, the Democratic Party in the upcoming midterm elections.
The issue that every poll shows as the top consideration for votes is the economy — and specifically inflation. In handling the economy, Biden’s approval rating is only 33 percent. On the issue of inflation, it is an abysmal 23 percent. The White House’s “not my fault” strategy is failing miserably.
But there is more. The just-released Quinnipiac University poll shows Biden’s favorable rating down to 33 percent. His disapproval rate among Democrats has gone from 7 to 14 percent in the past six months. The worst news for Biden and Democrats is that the President’s approval among the all-important independent voters is now at 25 percent.
There is one issue in which Biden has the approval of the American public. It is his handling of the Covid Pandemic. In that, he gets a 59 percent approval rating in the Gallup poll. But that may not hold. Medical professionals are predicting a serious surge in Covid cases as we enter the flu season. Even if the public does not blame Biden, it is still likely to have a negative impact on his favorable rating – and Biden cannot afford to lose ground anywhere.
Since there is only a short time before early voting commences, there is very little time to turn those numbers around. In political timing, almost no time at all. And despite the claims and hopes of Democrats, it does not appear that the economic problems are going to reverse before the November election.
But it is also true that in politics anything can happen. The strategy to demonize the GOP as a threat to the Republic and the future of democracy is not connecting with the voters who are not already committed to one side or the other. Democrats are hoping beyond hope that the upcoming public hearings of Speaker Pelosi’s kangaroo Select Committee will break through the public’s political agnosticism over the Democrat’s “little boy who cried wolf” strategy.
Democrats are also hoping that the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court will set enough hair on fire to swing votes from the GOP to the Democrats – especially the votes of suburban and black women. It will be late June before we know how much the draft reflects that actual decision and language of the Court. My guess is that the decision will stand, but the language will be different,
Personally, I do not think the work of the Select Committee, or the leaked draft will be sufficient to alter the trajectory of the voters. If not those two issues, what would? Likely nothing. At this stage, Democrats probably see what I see – that they are going to lose the midterm elections across the nation. The only question is how bad the loss will be for Democrats.
There is an almost universal belief that the GOP will pick up the House. On a bad day, Republicans get a 20-seat majority. Some pundits see as much as a 65-seat swing. The Senate is uncertain. Some political analysts believe that Democrats could actually take a one or two-seat majority – with Republican wins offset by losses in states the GOP should have won.
There will inevitably be a few wins in the mix for Democrats, but when the dust settles on the 2022 elections, there will be a lot more Republican officeholders and a lot fewer Democrats. And that may be attributed to Biden’s sinking popularity.
So, there ‘tis.